Brian Schley
Jun 9, 20099 min
WTNT34 KNHC 081156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
…IKE HITTING CUBA HARD…EYE OF OVER CAMAGUEY…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA… HOLGUIN…LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA…CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA….VILLA CLARA…SANCTI
SPIRITUS…CIENFUEGOS…AND MATANZAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES…35
KM…SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR…AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA TODAY…AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH…155
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES…325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB…28.35 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…21.1 N…77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 09/08/2008 16:15:20
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
…CORRECTION TO REMOVE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS…
…IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA…
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA… HOLGUIN…LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA…CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA….VILLA CLARA…SANCTI
SPIRITUS…CIENFUEGOS…MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE
HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES…70
KM…SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES…340
KM…SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR…BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT…MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY…AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 965 MB…28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET…ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA…WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION…21.4 N…79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 09/09/2008 05:41:32
000
WTNT34 KNHC 091151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
…CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA…
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES…65
KM…SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER
WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER
IKE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES…315 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB…28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET…ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…22.4 N…82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 09/09/2008 18:07:19
000
WTNT34 KNHC 092343
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
…IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES…145
KM…WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED…AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH…87 KM/HR.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB…28.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET…ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…23.1 N…84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 09/09/2008 21:33:37
000
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
…IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN…
AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL
RIO…AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES…
195 KM…WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED…AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH…72 KM/HR…WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH…96 KM/HR.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB…28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…23.2 N…84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG