Brian Schley
Jun 9, 20095 min
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST.
THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360
MILES…580 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH…23 KM/HR…
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT…AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY.
NOAA BUOY 41009 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH…68 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…28.7 N…80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.
SCHLEY
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: TS ERNESTO MOVING IN ON SOUTH FLORIDA !!!
DATE: 08/29/2006 18:00:09
STATUS: publish
BODY:
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES…25 KM…SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70
MILES…115 KM…SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO…AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MIDNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
SCHLEY
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IN MARYLAND (FRI THRU SAT)
DATE: 08/29/2006 17:42:49
STATUS: publish
BODY:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Morning low around 64. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible. High around 84. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms possible. Low around 62. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Periods of thunderstorms, otherwise cloudy. Afternoon high around 79.
Friday: Cloudy with periods of rain, heavy at times. Morning low around 60. Afternoon high around 77.
Saturday: Cloudy with periods of rain, heavy at times. Morning low around 60. Afternoon high around 79.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 62. Afternoon high around 84.
SCHLEY
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: ERNESTO REMAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE (THU TO SAT)
DATE: 08/28/2006 19:44:57
STATUS: publish
BODY:
Overnight: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms likely. Morning low around 68. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms likely. High around 82. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast:
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Afternoon high around 83.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. Morning low around 66. Afternoon high around 84.
Friday: Cloudy with periods of rain, heavy at times. Morning low around 68. Afternoon high around 80.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 84.
SCHLEY
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: ERNESTO BACK TO A CANE IN SOUTH FLORIDA & CAROLINA'S
DATE: 08/28/2006 19:32:16
STATUS: publish
BODY:
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA…ABOUT 30 MILES…
45 KM…EAST OF CAMAGUEY.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH…19 KM/HR. HOWEVER…A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT…WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.
SCHLEY
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: ERNESTO A TROPICAL STORM NOW BUT A CAT 2 SOON !!!
DATE: 08/27/2006 23:11:40
STATUS: publish
BODY:
Today: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High around 88. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. Low around 68. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High around 90. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Low around 70. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast:
Wednesday: Sunny. High around 87.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 71. Afternoon high around 89.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 72. Afternoon high around 91.
SCHLEY
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: ERNESTO POUNDING HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
DATE: 08/26/2006 23:54:16
STATUS: publish
BODY:
Satellite presentation continues to improve in these early morning hours of Sunday; very intense convection has persisted over and to the East of the circulation. Still there is some southwesterly shear keeping convection from wraping around the entire circulation but this is expected to change in the next day. The upper-low over the Northwest Caribbean is now on the move towards the West, which will allow for anticyclonic flow to develop over Ernesto within the next 24hrs. This should be followed by intensification, although a big question remains the land interaction that may occur with the system and Cuba/Jamaica. That is why rapid intensification is not expected until maybe the Gulf where all conditions will be there for a very intense hurricane. The latest SHIPS & GFDL guidance bring Ernesto to 120mph hurricane in the Northern Gulf, therefore my latest intensity forecast will be bumped up to 125mph at 120hrs. It should be noted fluctuations in intensity may occur as the system interacts with land. Models have flip-flopped back to the West, keeping no consistency in the run to run guidance. The global models continue to diverge greatly after 72hrs and now some diverge in the short term. The synoptic set-up will be a shortwave trough diving through the Plains/Ohio Valley; this will erode the western extent of the ridge located across the Gulf of Mexico. Some models indicate this trough will not weaken the ridge enough allowing for a track towards the Louisiana Coast, while others like the Panhandle.
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AUTHOR: blazin9635
TITLE: ERNESTO A MAJOR CANE TO 115+ MPH IN 120 HOURS !!!
DATE: 08/26/2006 11:58:12
STATUS: publish
BODY:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Morning low around 68. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms possible. High around 84. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. Low around 70. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast:
Monday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. Afternoon high around 86.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms likely. Morning low around 72. Afternoon high around 88.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90.
Thursday: Sunny. Morning low around 72. Afternoon high around 92.
FORECASTER: SCHLEY