MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER MILD LO: 42 HI: 62
TUESDAY: CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND RATHER MILD WITH SOME OCCASSIONAL AFTERNOON RAIN DEVELOPING BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE RAIN SHOULD ONLY TOTAL UP TO ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THRU LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LO: 47 HI: 67
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND STILL RATHER MILD WITH SOME OCCASSIONAL RAIN AROUND THRU MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (TOTAL NEW RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE TO NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY) LO: 44 HI: 64
THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND WARM WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS SAY FROM THE BAY ON NORTH AND WESTWARD LO: 49 HI: 69
FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER WARM WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THE RAINFALL SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAY OVER NEAR OCEAN CITY AND VIRGINIA BEACH LO: 53 HI: 73
"WEATHER OR NOT"
FORECASTER: SCHLEY —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 11/05/2008 17:11:17 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052102 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1000 FT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A BANDED APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND NOAA BUOY 42057.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT…THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. IN CONTRAST…THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH…WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THE TIME BEING. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD…VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT WEAKENING.
A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4. A SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS. LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN NOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING…E.G. MITCH OR WILMA…AND THE MODELS CAN BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. WE'RE GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME…AND THE NHC FORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.0N 81.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.3N 82.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.8N 82.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 82.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 83.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT
$$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 11/06/2008 05:31:04 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 700 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008
…PALOMA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM EST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES…115 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS…NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA…AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION…15.3 N…82.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 11/06/2008 17:44:36 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A…CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
CORRECTED HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH
…PALOMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM EST…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES…270 KM…SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 280 MILES…450 KM …WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF DAY ON FRIDAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PALOMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR…NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 71 MPH…115 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH…126 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DATA FROM THE NEARBY NOAA BUOY IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION…16.9 N…81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.
$$ FORECASTER STEWART —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 11/06/2008 22:03:27 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 100 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
…PALOMA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM EST…0600Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES… 200 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 265 MILES… 425 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY…AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 100 AM EST POSITION…17.5 N…81.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM EST.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN
—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 11/07/2008 12:48:23 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 100 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
…PALOMA INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE…HEADING TOWARD GRAND CAYMAN…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS…CIEGO DE AVILA…CAMAGUEY…LAS TUNAS…AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA…JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM EST…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES… 100 KM…SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 220 MILES…355 KM…WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH…10 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY…AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
DATA FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 974 MB…28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 100 PM EST POSITION…18.4 N…81.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…974 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM EST.
$$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN