Tonight: Clear. Morning low around 72. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Saturday: Sunny. High around 92. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Saturday Night: Clear. Low around 72. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast: Sunday: Mostly sunny. Afternoon high around 92. Monday: Thunderstorms likely, otherwise partly cloudy. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90. Tuesday: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms likely. Morning low around 68. Afternoon high around 88. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90.
SCHLEY
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IN GULF IN 96 HRS TO 90 MPH ??? DATE: 08/25/2006 15:27:15 STATUS: publish BODY:
Tropical Depression 5 strengthens to Tropical Storm Ernesto. The satellite presentation has become less organized today, as most of the convection remains over the Eastern Semicircle of the circulation. This is due to wind shear coming from an upper-low located over the Northwest Caribbean. The upper-level pattern will remain in question over the next day or so as models continue to indicate Ernesto will remain on the edge of 30-50kts of wind shear. If the system speeds-up any, that could mean the demise for Ernesto but models indicate the upper-low should retrograde fast enough westward to allow for a better environment for strengthening after 24hrs. My intensity forecast has no strengthening till after 24hrs, where I indicate Ernesto becoming a hurricane in 96hrs. There is the potential for Ernesto to become a very intense hurricane once in the Gulf of Mexico. Ernesto remains on a course West-Northwest through the Caribbean, south of a mid-level ridge. This should remain the general motion through the next 72hrs. Thereafter, a shortwave trough will dive into the Central Plains, allowing the mid-level ridge to weaken and Ernesto begin a more Northerly motion by 120hrs. Global models remain uncertain in the long-term track. The latest Canadian, Nogaps, and GFDL guidance show this weakness developing and turning the system northward towards the Gulf Coast. While the Euro seems to be taking Ernesto on a more westward course, although the Euro loses the storm late in the period. Latest track is more to the right.
SCHLEY
—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/25/2006 16:07:58 THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: DEBBY SWIMS BUT TD 5 FORMS !!! DATE: 08/24/2006 20:56:45 STATUS: publish BODY:
TD5 is slowly becoming better organized this evening. Satellite imagery indicates convection continues to develop near the low-level circulation and the entire cloud mass is becoming more symmetrical. An upper-low is located over the northwest Caribbean this upper-low is forecast to retrograde westward with the system. Westerly Shear could be a factor in strengthening within the next 48hrs as TD5 builds its inner core and is vulnerable to any sort of hostile environment. Dry air has begun to weaken considerably across the Eastern Caribbean, still the system remains in a place climatologicly unfavorable for strengthening. Latest Ships and GFDL intensity guidance indicate we may be dealing with a very potent hurricane in 120hrs, therefore my latest intensity forecast has been upped some but not as much as these models show. Strengthening should hold off until the system reaches the Central Caribbean. TD5 should become TS Ernesto within 24hrs. TD5 is being steered towards the west to west-northwest underneath the subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to build into the Gulf during the next couple days, which in turn would continue TD5 on a continued track to the West-Northwest. Latest model guidance has shifted slightly north, maybe due to a deeper layered storm potiential and at a faster forward speed.
SCHLEY
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: FIRST NOTHING !!! THEN DEBBY AND NOW ERNESTO ??? DATE: 08/24/2006 15:43:50 STATUS: publish BODY:
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible. Morning low around 68. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Friday: Mostly sunny. High around 86. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low around 70. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast: Saturday: Sunny. Afternoon high around 90. Sunday: Sunny. Morning low around 68. Afternoon high around 88. Monday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 72. Afternoon high around 92. Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90.
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: TS DEBBY SUFFERS BUT LOOK AT INVEST 97L !!! DATE: 08/23/2006 15:41:02 STATUS: publish BODY:
Invest 97L: continues to get better organized this afternoon as convection has been on the increase and the circulation continues to get better organized. Latest Quikscatt indicates that the low-level circulation has yet to close off, which may occur within the next 24hrs as convection persist. Upper-level winds remain very light with an anticylone virtually right on top of the disturbance. To make a long story short, a Tropical Depression could develop within the next 24hrs. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system closely
Tropical Storm Debby: did become better organized overnight last night and in the early morning hours this morning. Since then cloud tops have warmed considerably, which is most likely due to cooler waters & dry air. Models continue to indicate Debby will strengthen close to Hurricane status by 72hrs, but I really doubt that will occur. Water Vapor shows a large area of dry air ahead of the system and this should allow for minimal convective development. Also, models continue to indicate an upper trough will break-off in the Central Atlantic, increasing Southwesterly Shear over the system after 48hrs. The latest intensity forecast has come down quite a bit and keeps the intensity the same followed by a weakening of the storm at 72hrs. It is possible the system may dissipate when SW Shear increases at the end of the forecast period. Debby has begun a more pronounced Northwesterly motion today due to the weakening ridge
SCHLEY
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: TD 4 IN FAR EAST ATLANTIC MAY BECOME DEBBY WITHIN 24 HOURS !!! DATE: 08/22/2006 16:00:32 STATUS: publish BODY:
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 69. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High around 89. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low around 68. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast: hursday: Mostly sunny. Afternoon high around 86. Friday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 88. Saturday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 72. Afternoon high around 90. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 74. Afternoon high around 92.
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 FINALLY FORMS – FAR EAST ATLANTIC !!! DATE: 08/21/2006 20:47:27 STATUS: publish BODY: Overnight: Clear. Morning low around 70. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Tuesday: Sunny. High around 90. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Tuesday Night: Clear. Low around 72. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast: Wednesday: Sunny. Afternoon high around 92. Thursday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 68. Afternoon high around 88. Friday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90. Saturday: Partly cloudy. Morning low around 72. Afternoon high around 92. FORECASTER: SCHLEY —– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: HUMID BUT DRY AND NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS YET !!! DATE: 08/19/2006 11:55:59 STATUS: publish BODY:
Tonight: Clear. Morning low around 66. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High around 86. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible. Low around 68. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast: Monday: Mostly sunny. Afternoon high around 88. Tuesday: Sunny. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90. Wednesday: Sunny. Morning low around 68. Afternoon high around 88. Thursday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90.
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
—– ——– AUTHOR: blazin9635 TITLE: MUCH MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND BUT STAYS DRY !!! DATE: 08/18/2006 15:38:11 STATUS: publish BODY:
Tonight: Clear. Morning low around 66. Southeast winds 5-10 MPH. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High around 86. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low around 67. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Extended Forecast: Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible. Afternoon high around 84. Monday: Sunny. Morning low around 68. Afternoon high around 86. Tuesday: Sunny. Morning low around 69. Afternoon high around 88. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Morning low around 70. Afternoon high around 90.
FORECASTER: SCHLEY