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HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44 DATE: 09/11/2008 20:32:13 000

WTNT34 KNHC 120241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

…IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED…BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES… 715 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES …545 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY…LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO…AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES…425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB…28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION…26.3 N…90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/12/2008 05:28:11 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

…LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER… INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES…585 KM…EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES…370 KM… SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY…LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM. AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH…176 KM/HR…AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB…28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET…AND POSSIBLY HIGHER…COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…26.9 N…92.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/12/2008 15:42:01 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122030 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

…IKE'S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER… INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES…220 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES…385 KM… EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS…ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB…28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET…ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…27.7 N…93.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/12/2008 20:43:59 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

…LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARD GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST… …HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON GALVESTON ISLAND…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER… INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES… 85 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES…150 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE…JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS… AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE…COULD OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR…HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS…ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION…28.6 N…94.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART/READ

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