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HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY DATE: 09/13/2008 00:17:18 000

WTNT34 KNHC 130656 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

…EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON….LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 2 AM CDT…0700 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM CDT…0700Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES… 15 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES…100 KM…SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…16 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO…THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE…AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS…AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE…COULD OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76 MPH…122 KM/HR…AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH…159 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB…28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS…ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION…29.2 N…94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/13/2008 08:24:26 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

…IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS… …IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT…

AT 10 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT…THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES…35 KM… NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…AND ABOUT 35 MILES…60 KM… WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY…AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER…IKE COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH…91 KM/HR…WAS REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB…28.47 INCHES. DURING THE PAST HOUR…A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB…28.60 INCHES…WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES… WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES… WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI… ILLINOIS…NORTHERN INDIANA…AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA…MUCH OF ARKANSAS…AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…31.0 N…95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/13/2008 15:32:51 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

…IKE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS… …LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT…

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF TYLER TEXAS. THIS IS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES…80 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES…170 KM…SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING… WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY…AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND…AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES. DURING THE PAST HOUR…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980.7 MB…28.96 INCHES…WAS MEASURED AT TYLER TEXAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGE VALUES OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA…WHICH WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI…ILLINOIS…NORTHERN INDIANA…AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…MUCH OF ARKANSAS…AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…32.4 N…95.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

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