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HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A DATE: 09/11/2008 05:34:19 000

WTNT34 KNHC 111152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 700 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

…LARGE HURRICANE IKE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES…920 KM…EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES…435 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…16 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE…AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES…410 KM.

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB…27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…25.3 N…88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/11/2008 15:28:51 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112047 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

…IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES…820 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES… 645 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS…WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…26.0 N…89.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/11/2008 19:28:18 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112359 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 700 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

…NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH YET AS IKE HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES…760 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES… 595 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE…BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS…WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…26.2 N…89.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER KNABB

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