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IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA 09/10/2008 05:28:23 000

WTNT34 KNHC 101139 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

…IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES…230 KM…NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES…695 KM …SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…BUT A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80 MPH…129 KM/HR…PINAR DEL RIO…63 MPH…101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA 62 MPH…100 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB…28.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…23.9 N…85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/10/2008 15:21:57 000 WTNT34 KNHC 102100 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

…WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST…

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT…A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES…1155 KM…EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES…590 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT…AND A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB…28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…24.5 N…86.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/10/2008 17:24:15 000 WTNT34 KNHC 102349 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 700 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

…IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES…1125 KM…EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 345 MILES…555 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY…AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…24.7 N…86.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

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