LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS… DATE

WTNT34 KNHC 070247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

…LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…

AT 11 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS… CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST…VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…21.2 N…70.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/07/2008 01:06:18 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070546 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

…HANNA BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…

AT 2 AM EDT…0600 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF WATCH HILL NORTHWARD TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT…0600Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CONNECTICUT.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH…54 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS…OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM …TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB…29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS…IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION…41.6 N…71.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/07/2008 01:08:04 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070553 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

…EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE PASSING OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS… CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…HOLGUIN…LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT…0600Z…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST…OR OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS AND ABOUT 115 MILES…190 KM…EAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 114 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION…21.3 N…71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER BROWN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/07/2008 07:12:37 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071144 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 800 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

…IKE HEADING FOR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS….

AT 800 AM…1200 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS… CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…HOLGUIN…LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA… CAMAGUEY AND CIEGO DE AVILA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS…VILLA CLARA…AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR JUST EAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…24 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES…230 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB…28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION…21.0 N…72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 09/07/2008 17:06:36 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072344 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

…MAJOR HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA… HOLGUIN…LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA…CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA….VILLA CLARA…SANCTI SPIRITUS…CIENFUEGOS…AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS… CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…100 KM …NORTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 30 MILES…45 KM…EAST OF PUNTO DE SAMA ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY…AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH…195 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES…230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB…27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…21.1 N…75.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER PASCH