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SUMMER WARMTH STILL AROUND BUT WINTER IS SURELY GETTING CLOSER !!! DATE: 10/14/2008 19:59:41

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM LO: 58 HI: 78

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS LO: 60 HI: 80

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER LO: 54 HI: 69

SATURDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE LO: 49 HI: 64

SUNDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL RATHER COOL LO: 52 HI: 66

"WEATHER OR NOT"

FORECASTER: SCHLEY

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 10/14/2008 20:02:40 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 800 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

…OMAR LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT…

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…ST. MAARTEN/MARTIN…AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES…540 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM …MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION…14.1 N…68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 10/14/2008 20:06:36 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142351 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

…DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES… 260 KM…NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…16.2 N…83.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 10/15/2008 11:56:29 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A…CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

CORRECTED POSITION LATITUDE IN MAIN BODY AND REPEAT SECTION

…OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…

AT 200 PM AST…1800 UTC… THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN… SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…ST. BARTHELEMY…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…AND MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST…THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES…310 KM…SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 205 MILES…330 KM…SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY…WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK…OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO…STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR…NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH…104 KM/HR…AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH…126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB…28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION… OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION…15.5 N…66.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

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