TODAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT LO: 64 HI: 84
MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT LO: 69 HI: 89
TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY HOT AND MORE HUMID WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS LO: 72 HI: 92
WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL HOT BUT WE SHOULD LOOSE THE STORM CHANCES ATLEAST FOR A DAY OR TWO LO: 66 HI: 86
THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH BUILDING HEAT BEFORE FAY ??? WELL IF WE ARE EFFECTED WITH ANY STEADY RAIN FROM THE REMAINS OF FAY IT WOULD BE SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCE IS NO GREATER THAN 50/50 AS FAY MAY ALSO STAY OFFSHORE ALONG THE DELMARVA COASTLINE AS SHE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THUS ONLY GIVING US LITTLE RAINFALL IF ANY AT ALL IN THE BALTIMORE AREA LO: 68 HI: 88
"WEATHER OR NOT"
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/17/2008 12:12:51 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A…CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
…CORRECTED TO ADD AIRCRAFT PRESSURE…
…FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST…
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO…AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET…AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 2 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES…215 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES…460 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT… WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY…CROSS WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING…AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA…FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA…JAMAICA…AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…20.8 N…79.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN
—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/18/2008 05:37:23 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS FAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD…INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
AT 8 AM EDT…1200 UTC…ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF VARADERO CUBA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES…125 KM…EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 100 MILES…160 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH…100 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…23.2 N…81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN/FRANKLIN —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/18/2008 16:26:50 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 5 PM EDT…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD…INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT…2100 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
AT 5 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS…AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES…235 KM…SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH…96 KM/HR…AND AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SAND KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH…115 KM/HR…AT AN ELEVATION OF 149 FT.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA…WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION…24.6 N…81.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN
—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/19/2008 05:11:58 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A…CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
..CORRECTION FOR LOCATION FROM FT MYERS
…FAY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD…AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE…AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED INLAND IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST…OR ABOUT 30 MILES…50 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND 35 MILES…55 KM SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…26.5 N…81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER AVILA —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/20/2008 18:22:50 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
…FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST ABOUT 45 MILES…75 KM… EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT… WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK…FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER TONIGHT…BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…29.0 N…80.3 W. MOVEMENT…STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 08/23/2008 13:27:57 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
…CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA…INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES…125 KM…EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA…THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA…AND EASTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA…SOUTHERN GEORGIA…AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION…30.5 N…85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$ FORECASTER AVILA