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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A DATE: 10/15/2008 11:59:09

WTNT31 KNHC 151800 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 200 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

…BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS…

AT 2 PM EDT…1800 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT…1500Z…THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES…65 KM… EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES…385 KM… EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…10 KM/HR…AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA…NORTHERN HONDURAS… BELIZE…GUATEMALA…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…15.6 N…84.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

—– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 10/15/2008 20:22:09 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

…OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…ST. BARTHELEMY…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO…AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…AND MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES… 45 KM…SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 105 MILES…165 KM… WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF OMAR WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH… 185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS OMAR MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM. ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH…63 KM/HR…WITH A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH…94 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 967 MB…28.56 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS… VIEQUES…AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION…OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…17.4 N…64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…967 MB.

INTERMEDIATES ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM AND 300 AM AST…FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 10/16/2008 17:44:34 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2008

…OMAR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC… …HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES…

AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES… 560 KM…NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH…43 KM/HR… AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OMAR COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES…OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FROM ANTIGUA SOUTHWARD TO MARTINIQUE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…22.1 N…59.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART —– COMMENT: AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user DATE: 10/19/2008 07:52:54 URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 905 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008 MDZ013-014-016-VAZ057-192115- /O.CON.KLWX.FR.Y.0005.081020T0600Z-081020T1300Z/ PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ANNAPOLIS…WALDORF 905 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008 …FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY…

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN SETTLING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERMIT AREAS OF FROST TO FORM TOWARD DAWN MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION… THERE MAY BE A FEW REMOTE SPOTS IN OUTLYING AREAS THAT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK TOWARD SUNRISE.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

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