Brian Schley
Jun 9, 20098 min
MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER MILD LO: 42 HI: 62
TUESDAY: CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND RATHER MILD WITH SOME OCCASSIONAL AFTERNOON RAIN DEVELOPING BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE RAIN SHOULD ONLY TOTAL UP TO ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THRU LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LO: 47 HI: 67
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND STILL RATHER MILD WITH SOME OCCASSIONAL RAIN AROUND THRU MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (TOTAL NEW RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE TO NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY) LO: 44 HI: 64
THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BREEZY AND WARM WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS SAY FROM THE BAY ON NORTH AND WESTWARD LO: 49 HI: 69
FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER WARM WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THE RAINFALL SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SAY OVER NEAR OCEAN CITY AND VIRGINIA BEACH LO: 53 HI: 73
"WEATHER OR NOT"
FORECASTER: SCHLEY
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 11/05/2008 17:11:17
000
WTNT43 KNHC 052102
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
FOUND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1000 FT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
1004 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A BANDED
APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND NOAA BUOY 42057.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT…THE GFDL
AND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
CUBA. IN CONTRAST…THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH…WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEAR
THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THE
TIME BEING. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD…VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
ABRUPT WEAKENING.
A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4. A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS. LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING…E.G. MITCH OR WILMA…AND THE MODELS CAN
BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. WE'RE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME…AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.0N 81.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.3N 82.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.8N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 82.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 83.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 11/06/2008 05:31:04
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008
…PALOMA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM EST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES…115 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS…NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA…AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION…15.3 N…82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 11/06/2008 17:44:36
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
CORRECTED HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH
…PALOMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM EST…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES…270 KM…SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 280 MILES…450 KM
…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF DAY ON
FRIDAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PALOMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
ORGANIZE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR…NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
71 MPH…115 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH…126 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DATA FROM THE NEARBY NOAA
BUOY IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION…16.9 N…81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 11/06/2008 22:03:27
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
…PALOMA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM EST…0600Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES…
200 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 265 MILES…
425 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY…AND POSSIBLY REACH
CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES…110 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 100 AM EST POSITION…17.5 N…81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 11/07/2008 12:48:23
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
…PALOMA INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE…HEADING TOWARD GRAND CAYMAN…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS…CIEGO DE AVILA…CAMAGUEY…LAS TUNAS…AND
GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA…JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM EST…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…
100 KM…SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 220 MILES…355 KM…WEST
OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH…10 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE
COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER
TODAY…AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT OR
ON SATURDAY.
DATA FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE
CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES…165 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 974 MB…28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 100 PM EST POSITION…18.4 N…81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…974 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN