Brian Schley
Jun 9, 20096 min
WTNT34 KNHC 130656
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
…EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON….LANDFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
AT 2 AM CDT…0700 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM CDT…0700Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES…
15 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES…100
KM…SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…16 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO…THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE…AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER
WINDS…AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE…COULD OCCUR
ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN
FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM
STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76
MPH…122 KM/HR…AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH…159 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB…28.14 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS…ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION…29.2 N…94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…953 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 09/13/2008 08:24:26
000
WTNT34 KNHC 131441
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
…IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS…
…IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT…
AT 10 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 10 AM CDT…THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM
SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY
TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES…35 KM…
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…AND ABOUT 35 MILES…60 KM…
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY…AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER…IKE COULD REMAIN A
HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES…370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH…91 KM/HR…WAS REPORTED
DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB…28.47 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST HOUR…A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB…28.60
INCHES…WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE IKE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES…
WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND…ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM
SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI…
ILLINOIS…NORTHERN INDIANA…AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…MUCH OF ARKANSAS…AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…31.0 N…95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…964 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
—–
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: A Yahoo! user
DATE: 09/13/2008 15:32:51
000
WTNT34 KNHC 132037
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
…IKE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…
…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT…
AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
TYLER TEXAS. THIS IS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES…80 KM…
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES…170
KM…SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING…
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER
OF IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
TODAY…AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES FARTHER INLAND…AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST HOUR…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980.7 MB…28.96
INCHES…WAS MEASURED AT TYLER TEXAS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE
FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED
TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGE VALUES OF 8 TO 10 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL AREAS. TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA…WHICH
WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MISSOURI…ILLINOIS…NORTHERN INDIANA…AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…MUCH OF ARKANSAS…AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…32.4 N…95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART